The game of tennis raises many questions that are of interest to a statistician. Is it true that beginning to serve in a set gives an advantage? Are new balls an advantage? Is the seventh game in a set particularly important? Are top players more stable than other players? Do real champions win the big points? These and many other questions are formulated as hypotheses and tested statistically.
Analyzing Wimbledonalso discusses how the outcome of a match can be predicted (even while the match is in progress), which points are important and which are not, how to choose an optimal service strategy, and whether winning mood actually exists in tennis. Aimed at readers with some knowledge of mathematics and statistics, the book uses tennis (Wimbledon in particular) as a vehicle to illustrate the power and beauty of statistical reasoning.
1. Warming up Wimbledon Commentators An example Correlation and causality Why statistics Sports data and human behavior Why tennis? Structure of the book Further reading
2. Richard Meeting Richard From point to game The tiebreak Serving first in a set During the set Best-of-three versus best-of-five Upsets Long matches: Isner-Mahut 2010 Rule changes: the no-ad rule Abolishing the second service Further reading
3. Forecasting Forecasting with Richard Federer-Nadal, Wimbledon final 2008 Effect of smaller ?p Kim Clijsters defeats Venus Williams, US Open 2010 Effect of larger ?p Djokovic-Nadal, Australian Open 2012 In-play betting Further reading
4. Importance What is importance? Big points in a game Big games in a set The vital seventh game Big sets Are all points equally important? The most important point Three importance profiles Further reading
5. Point data The Wimbledon data set Two selection problems Estimators, estimates, and accuracy Development of tennis ol³-
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