Benefits of Bayesian Netork Models [Paperback]

The application of Bayesian Networks (BN) or Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) in dependability and risk analysis is a recent development. A large number of scientific publications show the interest in the applications of BN in this field.

Unfortunately, this modeling formalism is not fully accepted in the industry. The questions facing today's engineers are focused on the validity of BN models and the resulting estimates. Indeed, a BN model is not based on a specific semantic in dependability but offers a general formalism for modeling problems under uncertainty.

This book explains the principles of knowledge structuration to ensure a valid BN and DBN model and illustrate the flexibility and efficiency of these representations in dependability, risk analysis and control of multi-state systems and dynamic systems.

Across five chapters, the authors present several modeling methods and industrial applications are referenced for illustration in real industrial contexts.

Foreword by J.-F. Aubry ix

Foreword by L. Portinale  xiii

Acknowledgments  xv

Introduction xvii

Part 1. Bayesian Networks 1

Chapter 1. Bayesian Networks: a Modeling Formalism for System Dependability  3

1.1. Probabilistic graphical models: BN  5

1.1.1. BN: a formalism to model dependability  5

1.1.2. Inference mechanism  7

1.2. Reliability and joint probability distributions 8

1.2.1. Multi-state system example  8

1.2.2. Joint distribution  9

1.2.3. Reliability computing  9

1.2.4. Factorization 10

1.3. Discussion and conclusion 14