Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics [Paperback]

The game of tennis raises many questions that are of interest to a statistician. Is it true that beginning to serve in a set gives an advantage? Are new balls an advantage? Is the seventh game in a set particularly important? Are top players more stable than other players? Do real champions win the big points? These and many other questions are formulated as hypotheses and tested statistically.

Analyzing Wimbledonalso discusses how the outcome of a match can be predicted (even while the match is in progress), which points are important and which are not, how to choose an optimal service strategy, and whether winning mood actually exists in tennis. Aimed at readers with some knowledge of mathematics and statistics, the book uses tennis (Wimbledon in particular) as a vehicle to illustrate the power and beauty of statistical reasoning.

1. Warming up
Wimbledon
Commentators
An example
Correlation and causality
Why statistics
Sports data and human behavior
Why tennis?
Structure of the book
Further reading

2. Richard
Meeting Richard
From point to game
The tiebreak
Serving first in a set
During the set
Best-of-three versus best-of-five
Upsets
Long matches: Isner-Mahut 2010
Rule changes: the no-ad rule
Abolishing the second service
Further reading

3. Forecasting
Forecasting with Richard
Federer-Nadal, Wimbledon final 2008
Effect of smaller ?p
Kim Clijsters defeats Venus Williams, US Open 2010
Effect of larger ?p
Djokovic-Nadal, Australian Open 2012
In-play betting
Further reading

4. Importance
What is importance?
Big points in a game
Big games in a set
The vital seventh game
Big sets
Are all points equally important?
The most important point
Three importance profiles
Further reading

5. Point data
The Wimbledon data set
Two selection problems
Estimators, estimates, and accuracy
Development of tennis ol0