This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organizational realities, experience, and beliefs are explored to encourage and embrace change in business organizations for a successful future.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS x
INTRODUCTION 1
The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future 1
Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future 1
The Significance of Scenario Thinking 2
Developing the Sixth Sense – the Approach to Scenario Thinking 5
How this Book is Organized 6
1. PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE 11
Understanding Organizational Success 12
Success and Failure are Inevitable 12
Understanding success by understanding failure 13
Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail 14
Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems 19
Sustaining Competitive Advantage – the Battle of Canon and Xerox 19
Yahoo! – Competing in Fast-moving Markets 23
Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick – the Story of Lego 26
Success Stories 28
Providing Customer Value – the Rise of Tetra Pak 28
Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth – Nokia Answers the Call 32
Barriers to Strategic Success 34
Lessons Learned 34
Creating Value – The Difference Between Success and Failure 36
Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity 37
Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning 37
2. HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE 4l³g