Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View [Paperback]

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation.In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

This book examines how to forecast the international migration component in a way that can be used for population forecasts using the probabilistic approach. It applies Bayesian statistical methods to an under-researched area of population forecasting.

PART I. INTRODUCTION  1. Introduction and background  2. Preliminaries  PART II. EXPLAINING AND FORECASTING MIGRATION  3. Explaining migration: brief overview of selected theories  4. Forecasting migration: selected models and methods  PART III. EXAMPLES OF BAYESIAN MIGRATION PREDICTIONS  5. Bayesian model selection and forecast averaging  6. Bayesian VAR modelling from general to specific  7. Selected approaches to discontinuities in trends  8. Evaluation of presented forecasts of European migration  9. Bayesian computing in practice (Contributed by Arkadiusz Wi[niowski)  PART IV. PERSPECTIVES OF FORECAST MAKERS AND USERS  10. Extensions and limitations of migration forecasts  11. Dealing with uncertal³