The Sixth Sense Accelerating Organizational Learning ith Scenarios [Hardcover]

This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organizational realities, experience, and beliefs are explored to encourage and embrace change in business organizations for a successful future.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS x

INTRODUCTION 1

The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future 1

Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future 1

The Significance of Scenario Thinking 2

Developing the Sixth Sense – the Approach to Scenario Thinking 5

How this Book is Organized 6

1. PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE 11

Understanding Organizational Success 12

Success and Failure are Inevitable 12

Understanding success by understanding failure 13

Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail 14

Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems 19

Sustaining Competitive Advantage – the Battle of Canon and Xerox 19

Yahoo! – Competing in Fast-moving Markets 23

Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick – the Story of Lego 26

Success Stories 28

Providing Customer Value – the Rise of Tetra Pak 28

Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth – Nokia Answers the Call 32

Barriers to Strategic Success 34

Lessons Learned 34

Creating Value – The Difference Between Success and Failure 36

Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity 37

Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning 37

2. HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE 4l£J